How we simulate history
Many all-in-one funds are only a few years old. To compare them with older funds over 5 or 10 years, we estimate how their mix of investments would have done before they launched. This page explains how that estimate is made and how close it has come to the real results.
The short version
Every all-in-one fund publishes its mix, for example 36% Australian shares, 26.5% global shares and so on. For the years before a fund launched, we work out what that mix would have returned each day using the real returns of ASX index ETFs that hold the same kinds of investments. Before 2013 we use US-listed index funds converted to Australian dollars, and Australian interest rates. Then we take off the fund's fee. For geared funds we also allow for the borrowing and its interest cost.
From the day a fund launched, we use only its own real prices.
The three periods in a fund's history
- Before all its ingredients have data. Nothing is shown. If one of the ingredients we need has no data yet, we don't guess. We also don't go back before January 1997.
- From when every ingredient has data, up to launch. This part is simulated. Charts draw it as a dotted line, and tables underline any figure that uses it.
- From launch to today. Real prices, with dividends reinvested.
For example, VDHG launched in November 2017 and its simulation starts in January 1997. GHHF launched in April 2024 and also starts in January 1997, so 8 of the 10 years in its 10 year figure come from the simulation. VanEck's all-in-one funds start in April 2019, because that is when their youngest ingredient (global listed property, hedged) has data. Each fund's start dates are listed under Since in the All-in-one ETFs table.
Where each fund's mix comes from
We take the mix from the issuer's own documents: the product disclosure statement (PDS), the fund page or the holdings file. We use the most detailed split the issuer publishes. When an issuer only gives a broad group such as "international shares", we use the broad ingredient for that group.
The ingredients
From 2013 each kind of investment is represented by an ASX index ETF. Before that we use the older sources in the third column. Hedged means the returns remove most of the effect of the Australian dollar rising or falling against other currencies. The Portfolio page uses the same ingredients to extend single ETFs, such as VAS or GOLD, back before they launched.
| Investment | ETFs used | Before the ETFs | Data from |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australian shares | VAS, from Jan 2013 | EWA, a US-listed fund of Australian shares, in Australian dollars | Mar 1996 |
| Australian small companies | VSO, from Jan 2013 | None | Jan 2013 |
| Australian listed property | VAP, from Jan 2013 | None | Jan 2013 |
| Global shares | VGS, with WXOZ from Mar 2013 | Vanguard's US 500, European and Pacific index funds (VFINX, VEURX, VPACX), in Australian dollars | Jan 1996 |
| Global shares, hedged | VGAD, from Nov 2014 | The same three Vanguard funds, hedged | Jan 1996 |
| Global small companies | VISM, with IJR from Jan 2013 | Vanguard's US small companies index fund (NAESX), in Australian dollars | Jan 1996 |
| Emerging markets shares | VGE, with IEM from Jan 2013 | Vanguard's US-listed emerging markets index fund (VEIEX), in Australian dollars | Jan 1996 |
| Global listed infrastructure, hedged | IFRA, from Apr 2016 | None | Apr 2016 |
| Global listed property, hedged | REIT, from Mar 2019 | None | Mar 2019 |
| Nasdaq-100 shares | NDQ, from May 2015 | QQQ, the US-listed Nasdaq-100 fund, in Australian dollars | Mar 1999 |
| US shares (S&P 500) | IVV, from Jan 2016 | Vanguard's US 500 index fund (VFINX), in Australian dollars | Jan 1996 |
| Gold | GOLD, from Jan 2011 | GLD, the US-listed gold fund, in Australian dollars | Nov 2004 |
| Australian bonds | VAF, from Jan 2013 | Worked out from the 10 year Australian Government bond yield | Jan 1996 |
| Global bonds, hedged | VBND, with VIF from Dec 2015 | Vanguard's US bond index fund (VBMFX), hedged | Jan 1996 |
| Cash | AAA, from Jan 2013 | The 3 month bank bill interest rate | Jan 1996 |
An older ingredient only fills the dates before the next one has data. It also has to pass a test first. Over at least 3 years when both had data, its monthly returns must move closely with the ETF that takes over from it (a correlation of 0.9 or more, where 1 is a perfect match), and its annual return must be within 1.5% of that ETF's. Some older ETFs failed and are not used. For example, VGS did not track VGAD closely enough, which shows how much hedging changes returns.
Before 2013
Our price data for ASX ETFs only includes distributions from January 2013. Before then it would show price changes alone, so we don't use it. For earlier years:
- US-listed index funds, with distributions reinvested, are converted to Australian dollars at each day's exchange rate. The US market closes before the ASX opens the next morning, so each US day's return counts on the next business day.
- Hedged ingredients use the US fund's return in US dollars, plus the difference between Australian and US 3 month interest rates. That difference is roughly what a currency hedge adds or costs.
- Global shares use three Vanguard index funds covering the US, Europe and the Pacific. The mix is 73%, 18% and 9% in June 2026. Before that, each part's share rises and falls with its prices, the way the size of each market did. The US part was about 41% in 1997 and 65% in 2020.
- Australian bonds are worked out each day from the 10 year Australian Government bond yield: the interest earned, plus the rise or fall in bond prices when the yield moves.
- Cash earns the 3 month bank bill interest rate.
Each of these passed the same test as the older ETFs, against the ETF that took over from it:
| Earlier ingredient | Checked against | Years compared | Correlation | Difference in annual return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EWA in Australian dollars | VAS | 13.5 | 0.95 | -0.50% |
| Vanguard global mix in Australian dollars | WXOZ | 13.3 | 0.97 | +0.74% |
| Vanguard global mix, hedged | VGAD | 11.7 | 0.98 | +0.46% |
| NAESX in Australian dollars | IJR | 13.5 | 0.95 | -0.04% |
| VEIEX in Australian dollars | IEM | 13.5 | 0.92 | -0.24% |
| Bond yield calculation | VAF | 13.5 | 0.96 | -0.15% |
| VBMFX, hedged | VIF | 10.6 | 0.91 | +0.63% |
| QQQ in Australian dollars | NDQ | 11.2 | 0.99 | +0.56% |
| VFINX in Australian dollars | IVV | 10.7 | 0.96 | +0.16% |
| GLD in Australian dollars | GOLD | 15.7 | 0.97 | 0.00% |
| Bank bill rate | AAA | 13.5 | Not used for cash | -0.30% |
Cash returns barely change from month to month, so correlation says little about them. Cash is judged on the difference in annual return. We also checked the Australian shares, global shares, Australian bonds and cash ingredients decade by decade from 1996 to 2026 against published index returns.
How each day's return is worked out
For an ungeared fund, a day's simulated return is each ingredient's return that day multiplied by its share of the mix, added up, less one day of the fund's fee. Say a fund is 40% Australian shares and 60% global shares. If VAS rises 1% and VGS falls 0.5% on the same day, the mix returns 0.4 × 1% + 0.6 × -0.5% = 0.1% before fees. If an ingredient didn't trade that day, its move counts on its next trading day.
The simulation resets to the target mix every day. Real funds rebalance less often, but our checks found this makes very little difference for ungeared funds. The ingredient funds already have their own fees taken out of their returns, and we take the fund's fee off as well, so the simulation leans slightly low.
Geared funds borrow to invest more than their unitholders put in. GHHF keeps its borrowing between 30% and 40% of the fund's total assets. We use the middle of that range, which works out to about $1.55 invested for every $1 of investors' money. Each day the simulation:
- multiplies the mix's return by 1.55,
- takes off interest on the borrowed $0.55, charged at the cash return (AAA, or the bank bill rate before 2013) plus 1% a year,
- takes off the fund's fee on the full $1.55.
The borrowing level is reset every day. Real geared funds adjust theirs less often.
Joining the simulation to real prices
The simulated line is scaled so it ends exactly at the fund's first real price. That way the chart is one continuous line with no jump on launch day.
How close has it been?
We ran the simulation over the years these funds have actually traded and compared it with what they really returned. Annual return is the average growth per year, with growth compounding. Drawdown is the largest drop from a high point to a later low. Checked in September 2026.
| Fund | Years of real prices | Real annual return | Simulated annual return | Real drawdown | Simulated drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VDHG | 8.8 | 9.51% | 9.39% | -28.3% | -28.7% |
| VDGR | 8.8 | 7.65% | 7.60% | -23.9% | -23.9% |
| VDBA | 8.8 | 5.77% | 5.66% | -18.3% | -18.9% |
| VDCO | 8.8 | 3.98% | 3.84% | -13.4% | -13.3% |
| DHHF | 6.8 | 10.30% | 10.67% | -28.5% | -27.9% |
| GHHF (geared) | 2.4 | 18.84% | 17.36% | -20.2% | -21.4% |
| VDAL | 1.5 | 14.74% | 12.77% | -9.6% | -10.3% |
For the five funds with 7 to 9 years of real prices, the simulation came within 0.4% a year of the real result, and its drawdown was within 0.6 percentage points of the real one. For geared GHHF it came in about 1.5% a year below the real fund. VDAL came in about 2% a year below, but over only 1.5 years, which is too short to judge. All of these funds launched after 2013, so this table checks the ETF ingredients. The earlier ingredients are checked in the table above.
What the simulation does not show
- It copies the mix, not the manager. If a fund chooses or weights its investments in its own way, as VanEck's all-in-one funds do, the simulation only reflects the broad mix.
- It uses the mix each fund has today. If a fund held a different mix in the past, that older mix is not used.
- Before 2013, Australian shares come in about 1% a year below the Australian share market. EWA holds large companies only, charges its own fee, and pays withholding tax on its dividends as an overseas fund.
- Before 2016, hedged global bonds are US bonds only, and there is no ETF to check that stretch against. This matters most for funds with a large bond share, such as VDCO (42% global bonds) and VDBA (35%).
- From 1996 to 2006, Australian bonds come in about 0.5% a year above the bond market. The calculation assumes the index held longer bonds than it did then.
- Before 2013, global shares count Canada as part of the US, and the Pacific fund includes some Australian companies.
- Mixes, fees and gearing levels are entered by hand from issuer documents, last checked in September 2026.
- It is an estimate for comparing funds, not a record of what any fund returned. Past returns, real or simulated, don't tell you what will happen next.
Where the data comes from
- Fund prices are daily closing prices from Yahoo Finance, adjusted so that dividends and distributions are reinvested.
- The 10 year Australian Government bond yield and the 3 month bank bill rate are from the Reserve Bank of Australia (tables F1.1 and F2), used under CC BY 4.0.
- The US dollar to Australian dollar exchange rate and the 3 month US Treasury bill rate are from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, retrieved from FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis).
This page explains a method. It is general information only, not financial advice.